South African motorists are heading into another uncertain fuel cycle, with projections pointing to further price pressure in May, even as government explores additional relief measures aimed at easing the strain on households and businesses.
According to insights in a recent update by BusinessTech, fuel under-recoveries remain elevated, with petrol and diesel still reflecting significant gaps that typically signal upward price adjustments.
Speaking during recent media engagements, Deputy Director-General Tseliso Maqubela from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources indicated that discussions around further intervention are ongoing, with potential announcements still being considered.
As reinforced in a reporting by TopAuto, Maqubela noted that there is still a possibility of additional relief measures being introduced, following earlier interventions such as the temporary reduction of the General Fuel Levy for April.
However, he stressed that no final decisions have been confirmed, and that the results will be communicated only once internal talks are completed.
Current projections suggest motorists could be facing another steep adjustment at the start of May, with estimates pointing to notable increases in both petrol and diesel prices. Diesel, in particular, remains under significant pressure due to higher international product costs.
These increases come despite a partial easing from earlier this month, when under-recoveries were significantly higher.
South Africa’s fuel pricing model remains closely tied to global oil markets, meaning local prices adjust in response to international trends rather than domestic production costs alone.
Maqubela explained that pricing is benchmarked against major global refining centres, with additional layers added including transport costs, retailer and wholesaler margins, and government levies such as the fuel levy and Road Accident Fund contributions.
Import dependency also plays a critical role, as roughly 60% to 70% of South Africa’s refined fuel is imported, primarily from Gulf countries including Oman, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Despite concerns about supply stability, officials have emphasised that availability is not currently the main challenge.
‘We are not concerned about the availability of supply. Our concern remains the price,’ Maqubela noted.
Meanwhile, labour and economic stakeholders, including Cosatu, have continued to advocate for further intervention, claiming that fuel taxes are still one of the most effective ways to protect consumers.
The union has welcomed earlier government action but warned that further increases could place additional strain on already fragile economic conditions.
At the same time, officials have supported the current price mechanism, claiming that, despite criticism, it has ensured constant fuel supply and market stability for nearly two decades.
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