South Africa could be staring at a major fuel crisis as the ongoing war in the Middle East threatens to push petrol prices up by R4 to R6 a litre, and possibly spark actual shortages if the conflict drags on.
The last global fuel crisis, triggered by the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, saw countries scrambling for oil, rationing petrol, and slashing speed limits to 80km/h. At the time, South Africa had emergency reserves and domestic refineries, but much has changed. Today, domestic refining capacity is far lower, leaving the country heavily dependent on imports, particularly from the United Arab Emirates, as per The Citizen.
James Lorimer warned that the situation is precarious. ‘If it goes on for another two weeks, we’re okay. But if it goes on for two months, we might well be in trouble,’ he said, pointing to delays at the Strait of Hormuz caused by Iranian actions. He also stressed the lack of transparent public data on fuel reserves makes it difficult to assess the full risk.
Sasol, which supplies nearly 40% of the country’s fuel, said operations are normal, with contingency measures in place to handle global market volatility.
While outright shortages are not yet confirmed, experts warn that the main immediate effect will be sharp price hikes. Wayne Duvenage noted that around 45% of the petrol price is made up of taxes and levies, with 43% tied to crude oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate. Rising oil costs could therefore hit consumers hard.
The motor industry is also bracing for the impact. Martle Keyter of the Motor Industry Staff Association said higher fuel prices increase operating costs for dealerships and workshops, threatening profitability and jobs, while eroding household budgets.
Economist Dawie Roodt warned of a domino effect: rising diesel and fertiliser costs, higher inflation, and potential interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and squeeze households further.
South Africans abroad are closely watching developments. A citizen in Abu Dhabi said life remains mostly normal despite occasional missile alerts, though communication from the South African embassy has been minimal.
With global tensions unlikely to ease quickly, local motorists are bracing for a rocky road ahead, both at the pump and across the economy.
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