South Africa’s beef industry experienced a promising uptick in 2025 due to rising global meat prices, faces a turbulent road ahead as industry experts warn of continued volatility lasting well into 2026.
According to Gert Blignaut, CEO of Beefmaster Group, persistent disease pressures, escalating input costs, and a fragile export environment could temper recent optimism.
‘We have navigated a significantly volatile environment, and this is likely to continue deep into 2026/27. Having said that, we remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead,’ Blignaut stated, as quoted on BizCommunity.
In 2025, the dynamics of supply and demand brought meaningful relief to cattle farmers, primarily driven by a local and global shortage of beef.
Blignaut highlighted that it was the first time in years that an optimistic undertone materialised, with meat prices lifting globally whilst South Africa followed suit.
Between February and May of that year, slaughter cattle prices surged by approximately 15%, mainly due to scarcity rather than disease-related disruptions.
‘Herds globally and locally were smaller, and slaughter numbers were down, which ultimately supported a healthier price environment that we haven’t seen in the last three to five years,’ Blignaut explained.
This rebound also eased financial strains on the feedlot industry, a crucial component of beef production.
Despite positive pricing trends, consumers remained under economic pressure from inflation and unemployment. However, South African beef retained its status as one of the most affordable options globally, maintaining high quality and export appeal.
Blignaut estimated that slaughter numbers in 2025 could drop by 5–7% compared to 2024, with total meat production falling between 13–15% due to the prevalence of smaller animals.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a major disruptor in the beef industry, continuing its impact since 2019. The disease not only hampers production but also affects pricing structures, having caused a spike in cattle prices by an additional 10% in 2025.
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‘FMD makes it difficult to compete economically,’ Blignaut remarked. ‘It adds direct costs because you must put safeguards in place to protect your business, at a significant investment and it distorts prices in a way that ultimately impacts the consumer. FMD has evolved into an economic disease. When an outbreak hits a region, that area loses economic value immediately,’ as quoted on BizCommunity.
A national vaccination programme announced by the government in November 2025, which saw 950,000 animals vaccinated, aims to mitigate the economic impact of FMD.
The government plans to roll out vaccinations in priority areas beginning in February 2026. Blignaut emphasised the urgency of the situation, stating that delays in vaccination could hinder the industry’s recovery.
As South Africa seeks to maintain its beef exports, ongoing negotiations for export health certificates for products from vaccinated herds have become critical.
Blignaut suggested that a dedicated export negotiating team within the Department of Agriculture could facilitate smoother trades, particularly as the country grapples with the repercussions of FMD.
In 2024, South Africa exported over 38,000 tonnes of beef, but Blignaut estimates a decrease of around 30% in 2025 due to FMD and the loss of access to key markets like China.
As a result, exporters are increasingly eyeing opportunities in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
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