Update: 10 October 2024
An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) is expected soon, potentially sparking a geomagnetic storm that could disrupt satellite communications and power grids into October 11.
According to The South African National Space Agency (SANSA), the source of this CME was from an X1.8 flare which occurred on 9 October.
Space weather is driven by solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), high-speed solar wind, and solar energetic particles, reflecting the Sun’s impact on Earth and other planets.
A CME is a cloud of charged particles from a solar explosion; when it reaches Earth’s magnetic field, it triggers a geomagnetic storm, causing auroras at the poles.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) global scale for geomagnetic storms, a G1 (Minor) storm may cause weak power grid fluctuations and minor satellite issues, while a G3 (Strong) storm could result in increased drag on low-Earth-orbit satellites, navigation problems, and intermittent HF radio signals.
SANSA anticipated a G3 geomagnetic storm last weekend from the X9 solar flare on October 3, but conditions stayed normal on October 5-6. Geomagnetic levels rose to G3/Strong on October 7-8.
Red auroras may occur, but their visibility depends on proximity to the South Pole, storm strength, and how long the intensity lasts, allowing solar energy to interact with Earth’s atmosphere.
Update:
There’s a minor radio blackout over Africa as the sun continues to release M Flares.
Starting at 11pm tonight, South Africa will experience G3 storm conditions. Unfortunately, we can only provide a warning about three hours in advance regarding the intensity of the storm.
The Southern Lights, or Aurora Australis, could make a stunning return to South African skies this weekend, thanks to a powerful geomagnetic storm linked to a significant solar flare.
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This flare, measuring X9.05—the strongest recorded by the South African National Space Agency (SANSA) in seven years—erupted from sunspot 3842 on 3 October.
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Solar flares are categorised by intensity, with X being the most powerful. The recent flare has already disrupted high-frequency radio communications, resulting in a total radio blackout across Africa that lasted up to 20 minutes. SANSA has been monitoring sunspot 3842 since it appeared on the Sun’s surface on 29 September; it is about 1.5 times larger than Earth and has produced several significant solar events.
The expected geomagnetic storms, triggered by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from this flare, will likely reach Earth over the weekend. While a minor geomagnetic storm is anticipated on Friday, the more intense effects of the X9 flare are expected to arrive on Saturday, with storm conditions ranging from minor (G1) to potentially severe (G4).
The last occurrence of the Southern Lights in South Africa was on 10 May, during the ‘Mother’s Day Storm,’ which produced stunning red auroras. Dr. Mpho Tshisaphungo, Head of Space Weather at SANSA, notes that if the latest CME reaches Earth between Friday night and early Saturday, there’s a chance to see the aurora again. However, visibility will depend on the storm’s strength and clear night time conditions.
In addition to the potential for an awe-inspiring light display, geomagnetic storms can interfere with communication and navigation systems, as well as power grids. SANSA advises industries reliant on these systems to be aware of possible disruptions throughout the weekend.
As the storm develops, hopeful spectators should keep an eye on the skies for another chance to witness the Southern Lights, though they should be prepared for the possibility that this rare event might not occur.
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