Statistics SA have stated that some of the crucial data that Census 2022 set out to gather are not of good enough quality to be released for official or public use due to flaws in the collection process, Cape {town} Etc reports.
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According to News24, Statistics SA has previously been uncompromising in their stance that Census 2022 met data collection standards.
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This is despite a record-high 30% undercount, clear anomalies in some results, and criticism from independent demographers.
Statistics SA published an updated version of the publication, ‘Census 2022 in Brief‘ on its website on Tuesday.
A section titled ‘Exclusions’ in the introduction of the report mentions that some data scheduled for release would no longer be published.
‘Based on census data quality evaluation exercises undertaken by Stats SA subject matter specialists and Census 2022 technical experts on various themes, the following variables/themes will not be published and are therefore not part of this report.’
The themes include:
- Income and earnings
- Labour and employment
- Mortality and fertility
Statistics SA will use its five-yearly Income and Expenditure survey, released in November, for income data and the Quarterly Labour Force Survey to estimate employment trends.
The exclusions validate a recent report by UCT demographers Rob Dorrington and Tom Moultrie for the Medical Research Council.
The report claimed a 30% undercount and inadequate post-enumeration survey rendered the R2.3 billion Covid-era census unreliable.
Commenting on the Statistics SA report on X this week, Moultrie said: ‘This is a travesty: the size and scope of the census usually permit all kinds of users (economists, demographers) to explore income, employment, and demographic indicators to a fine level of granularity. It provides one of the key pegs for parameterising population projections, which feed into a host of policy and programme initiatives. None of this, seemingly, will be possible.’
The failure of Census 2022 to provide income data impacts resource allocation in the National Budget and the government’s ability to assess its programmes.
For example, Treasury’s equitable share grants to municipalities rely on population estimates and income data to direct resources to the poorest areas.
In the February 2024 budget, Treasury chose not to use Census 2022 population estimates due to the lack of income data.
Mortality and fertility data were also missing for health planning and programme evaluation.
Additionally, Statistics SA did not plan to revise the total population count, which Dorrington and Moultrie believe is overestimated by 1 million.
The census also failed to provide population figures for metro areas, raising further concerns.
Between censuses, typically 10 years apart, Statistics SA produces mid-year population estimates based on the previous census.
However, Census 2022 found Johannesburg’s population to be 4.8 million, much lower than the previous estimate of 6 million.
This discrepancy has budgetary implications, leading the city to request a revision, which Statistics SA declined.
Additionally, Census 2022 shows the Western Cape has overtaken the Eastern Cape in population, making it the third-most populous province after Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
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