South Africans should brace for a hotter summer than usual, as the South African Weather Service (SAWS) predicts ‘above-average’ minimum and maximum temperatures in the upcoming months.
This heightened heat could add more strain to the nation’s already challenged power grid due to increased demand for cooling. Similar heatwaves have affected other countries in the northern hemisphere this year.
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SAWS cautions farmers, particularly in critical regions, to take preventive measures, including water conservation.
It has released its seasonal forecast for South Africa for the summer period of September 2023 to January 2024, which indicates that the El Niño weather phase is expected to persist for most of the summer months.

The local weather outlook coincides with alerts from the World Meteorological Organization on the expectation that El Niño will persist until the end of 2023, and international climate agencies project a sustained moderate to strong El Niño event extending into 2024.
Consequently, this results in severe weather and climate-related risks, encompassing conditions such as droughts, floods, storms and unprecedented high temperatures over the upcoming five years (2023-2027), which have been cautioned on a global scale.

Despite the forewarning and predictions, the complete extent of El Niño’s influence on South Africa remains uncertain.
The weather service predicts higher-than-normal rainfall levels for the majority of the country during the latter part of spring, which is expected to be advantageous for the agricultural sector, benefiting both crops and livestock.
In the Northern and Eastern Cape, where persistent drought conditions are experienced, there could be a potential for water loss due to evaporation, worsened by the expected higher-than-average temperatures, as clarified by the service.
As reported by News24, below-average rainfall can be expected in the central region, which includes the North West, Free State, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape, during the early summer season from November to January.
‘…The relevant decision-makers are encouraged to advise farmers in these regions to practise soil and water conservation, proper water harvesting and storage, establishing good drainage systems, and other appropriate farming practices,’ the weather service said.
Domestic and international concerns
The weather service’s warning about rising temperatures will offset the demand for cooling and subsequently increase energy consumption.
Similar patterns during the summer in countries like China resulted in an increase in air conditioning usage due to heat waves, straining the power grids.
Europe and Canada have experienced devastating wildfires that have been described as the most severe fire season in history.
These high temperatures also cause greater ultraviolet radiation and heat exposure, necessitating public caution in safeguarding against these risks.
Conversely, the above-average spring rainfall also elevates the risk of sudden floods, particularly in regions susceptible to flooding and lacking adequate drainage systems, according to the weather service.
‘These wet conditions also have the potential to give rise to waterborne infections and water-related accidents and injuries,’ the weather service said.
The weather service notes that these predictions are subject to monthly updates and may undergo changes.
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