This summer could see a wet start for much of the grain belt due to a possible La Niña event, Cape {town} Etc reports.
In its latest Seasonal Climate Watch, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) found a positive outlook for good rainfall ‘over most of the summer rainfall areas during Oct-Nov-Dec (OND).’
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‘We are still in the winter period; however, the current forecasts include those for the spring and early summer seasons.’
‘There is an exception however for the Limpopo region which still indicates below-normal rainfall that can be expected going into the early summer period. Mostly drier conditions are still expected over the country during spring.’
‘Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period,’ the report said on 1 August.
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‘The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a Neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. However current predictions are mixed in whether it will weaken towards a La Niña state during our next summer season,’ it added.
According to the National Ocean Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, trade winds are stronger than usual during La Niña events.
The Financial Mail reports that the International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society at Columbia University has placed the probability of a La Niña occurrence at over 50% between now and April 2025.
As a result, the start of the planting season for the grain belt (which extends from Mpumalanga to the Free State and North West) is now expected to be warm and wet.
Daily Maverick reports that this is welcome news as El Niño scorched the previous season’s crops.
Despite production of the staple white maize crop being 25% lower than last year, domestic demand will still be met as the early summer rains are set to boost agricultural sectors, including livestock, and top-up dam levels.
Conversely, Limpopo will see relatively dry conditions between October and December, while the driest period across the country will be in September. ‘…it is recommended that the relevant decision-makers advise farmers in this region to implement soil and water conservation measures, proper water harvesting and storage techniques, establish effective drainage systems, and adopt other appropriate farming practices,’ the report adds.
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