The 130th Durban July couldn’t possibly be more special than it already is, with a record-breaking R10 million prize pool and the fashionable Country Allure theme. Or perhaps it could? Because this year, the race feels more open than usual. The three co-favourites, See It Again, Eight on Eighteen, and Note to Self, are all evenly rated ahead of the event, with each carrying matching 6/1 odds. And to make things even more interesting, it’s the first time in years this has happened.
As a prominent South African horse-racing ambassador at 10bet, Adam Marcus has some interesting takes. He’s been following the build-up closely, and the fans are curious to hear his expert take on the exciting pre-race situation.
View from the top of the field
As soon as the first declarations were over, racing fans knew they were in for a treat. Three horses sharing the same rating isn’t something you get to see every day, especially at big events like the one taking place at the Greyville Racecourse on 4 July.
There’s no clear differentiation between them, but each horse rightfully made its way to the top. See It Again enters the race as the highest-rated of the three, while Eight on Eighteen has a thing or two to prove after a heartbreaking loss to The Real Prince at last year’s Durban July, despite the dominant run leading into it. And as a promising gelding with enough fuel to potentially steal the victory, Note to Self is also in the conversation for a reason.
One thing is for sure: the racing fans have no clear winner to back, which only adds to the uncertainty heading into the race.
Adam Marcus’ read on the race
An expert’s perspective provides that missing layer that not even racing coverage can fully capture, and Adam Marcus brings that kind of insight. As someone who has been following the South African horse racing scene for years, he remains optimistic about the performance of all three horses and hopes for a spectacle of a race.
From an analytical standpoint, such a close race is likely going to be decided by track conditions and raw ability. For example, the sea-level racetrack in Durban might not be the most suitable spot for horses that have shown exceptional results at an altitude. The 10bet expert also believes preparation races and public gallops will give us more insight into the power rankings than the fairly even pre-race ratings.
A look at other serious contenders
Even with the three favourites sharing top rankings, overlooking other runners would be a rookie mistake. Among the next tier of contenders, Wish List stands out at 8/1 after the first declarations. As the defending champion, The Real Prince is also listed at the same number.
Still, the numbers behind the predicted winners and the actual outcomes are always worth analysing. Namely, only 3 favourites have won the race in the past 13 years. That’s why it’s also worth keeping an eye on longer-priced runners at around 16/1. There are plenty of names worth watching here, such as Jan van Goyen, Mocha Blend, Star Major, and Grand Empire.
The longer prices and what the Durban July often does
The Durban July has a long history of close calls and races that were unpredictable up until the final gallop. The 44-horse pool always leads to a packed 18-runner field, with younger horses often coming out on top.
The age factor shouldn’t be overlooked, either, as young geldings like Note to Self have a real chance at being the first to cross the finish line. And if the Durban July’s long history has taught us anything, it’s that the horses with the shortest odds aren’t always the ones who go on to win.
Wrapping up
The Durban July is South Africa’s crown jewel of sporting events, and with the top three favourites closely matched in the ratings, the 2026 edition is set to be very special.
At the very least, the race is certainly going to be exciting for racing fans, and even those without a horse in the running will be hoping it unfolds as tightly as the early ratings suggest.
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Picture: Supplied
