After months of climbing petrol and diesel costs, preliminary data indicates that November could finally bring some relief for South African motorists.
Initial data last week hinted at upcoming fuel price reductions, and now, as we pass the midpoint of October, those cuts seem more likely.
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The preliminary CEF data suggests a potential decrease of about R1.97 per litre for 95 Unleaded petrol and R1.92 for 93 ULP. These numbers could increase if the current trends continue.
If these projections hold, the price for 95 Unleaded could go down to approximately R23 at the coast and R23.70 inland. Similarly, 93 ULP may drop to around R23.30. This comes after a steep rise of R3.16 per litre for 93 Unleaded over the past three months, so any price cut would offer some relief.
For diesel, CEF data suggests a more modest reduction, around 80 cents per litre for 500 ppm diesel. Whether this will affect South Africa’s overall inflation is unclear, especially considering diesel has increased by nearly R5.40 over the past three months.
As for oil prices, they’re chiefly influenced by international factors. October has witnessed notable fluctuations. According to Reuters, there was an early drop of about 11% as a result of recession worries and Russia partially lifting its fuel export ban. The conflict in the Middle East pushed prices up by around 5%. Despite these shifts, the overall trend indicates an excess supply of fuel, making price reductions likely. At the time of writing, oil was valued at $89.65. Any surge in Middle East conflicts could cause prices to soar again.
Yet, barring unforeseen circumstances, November should still see some fuel price reduction, although maybe not as much as hoped.
The South African Rand has also seen slight gains against the US dollar in October, trading at $18.78 compared to September’s average of $18.98.
As of 17 October, the outlook is positive: petrol prices may fall by nearly R2 in November, and diesel could see reductions of up to R1, assuming current trends continue.
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