Eskom has projected that loadshedding will occur every week for the next year, based on a worst-case scenario of planned and unplanned outages exceeding 17 000MW.
The latest Weekly System Status Report, covering the period from 20 March to 26 March, was released by Eskom, which highlights the poor performance of its existing fleet.
Also read: Electricity minister deems predicting end of loadshedding “highly irresponsible”
The report indicated that the energy availability factor (EAF), which represents the average percentage of power stations available to generate and distribute energy at any given time, was 55.60%. This figure was below the target of 60% set for the month of March.
This development is likely to cause widespread concern for South African businesses and consumers, who are already grappling with the effects of frequent power cuts.
As reported by News24, Eskom has cited several factors contributing to the current situation, including ageing infrastructure and inadequate investment in new power plants.
According to energy analyst Chris Yelland, Eskom has a methodology in place to forecast demand, as well as planned and unplanned outages, in order to determine the likelihood of loadshedding.
‘It is just a forecast, but it’s done following a certain methodology, and the methodology shows a higher risk of load shedding every week of the year for the next 52 weeks, ‘ Yelland said.
This methodology involves a colour-coded table, which was made public by Eskom and indicates the state of the electricity supply. Read the full report here.
Green on the table indicates that there is sufficient power generation or supply to meet demand, while red is indicative of a worst-case scenario where the supply falls short of the demand by more than 2 100MW, which would result in two stages of loadshedding.
Lighter shades, such as yellow and orange, represent varying degrees of supply shortfall.
The table provided by Eskom is almost entirely red, implying that there is a severe shortage of electricity supply. The utility has forecasted outages exceeding 17 000MW, which is a cause for concern as this is likely to result in frequent loadshedding.
Yelland says Eskom’s latest forecast indicates that loadshedding will occur ‘every single week of the year,’ contradicting claims made by some politicians of improvements in energy generation.
According to Yelland, Eskom’s table or forecast does not provide an indication of the risk of a blackout or grid collapse.
Also read: The City’s draft budget commits R2.3 billion to mitigate loadshedding
Yelland explained that loadshedding is implemented when demand and supply are balanced, and the risk of a blackout arises when the balance cannot be restored through loadshedding. Therefore, the table or forecast only serves to indicate the likelihood of loadshedding and does not reflect the potential for more severe power supply disruptions.
‘The fact that we are doing load shedding and bringing supply and demand back into balance means there is no additional risk,’ said Yelland.
To restore the balance between supply and demand, Eskom must either increase supply or reduce demand. However, as Eskom is unable to increase supply, it has resorted to reducing demand through loadshedding.
The reduction of the risk of loadshedding over the long term will require an increase in supply. Yelland believes that fixing the existing broken generating units is a potential solution to this issue, a solution that is easier said than done.
There are multiple reasons why some units break down, including old and damaged equipment, a shortage of spares, and lengthy repairs. For example, the failure of the flue-gas desulphurisation duct has impacted three units at Kusile.
Yelland emphasised that while it may be easy to suggest fixing the units, it is a challenging task that requires skills, resources and good management.
Another possible solution would be to construct new power plants. Yelland says that these new facilities must be constructed to function effectively, in contrast to the recent examples of Medupi and Kusile, which have suffered from significant technical and design problems.
‘Unfortunately, we have seen at Medupi and Kusile the delays, the technical problems, and design problems and corruption…,’ Yelland commented.
While Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has previously attributed Eskom’s difficulties to primarily technical issues rather than corruption, Yelland suggests that corruption, maladministration and even sabotage have played a role in the power utility’s struggles.
Also read: South Africa’s electricity minister looks abroad to fix power crisis
‘There are technical reasons, but there are also these other issues part of the problem. They all contribute in one way or another to the higher levels of load shedding we are experiencing,’ Yelland stated.
In response to Eskom’s power supply forecast, Mercia Grimbeek, director of project development at the renewable energy company Enertrag South Africa, compared the situation to running a taxi service with a fleet of cars that were never serviced or fixed.
‘You do not know when the brakes will fail, and the engine will seize,’ Grimbeek stated.
This comparison emphasises the unpredictable and potentially hazardous nature of the power crisis, underscoring the urgent need for reliable and sustainable solutions.
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Picture: Unsplash
