Energy utility Eskom warns that the national grid will be under severe strain over the next few months.
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In an update on the state of the grid and progress made on the Energy Action Plan, the group noted that although thousands of megawatts are offline due to several challenges, it is working on mitigating the shortfall in demand.
Businesstech reports that the group aims to return 3 115MW by March 2025 – though this will only amount to 1 869MW realised in actual power to the grid, based on an energy availability factor of 60%.
Shortages are set to continue until these megawatts can be recovered. This issue is coupled with the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF), and Operational Capability Loss Factor (OCLF), which are well over the planned assumptions from last year. UCLF refer to units taken offline for unplanned outages while OCLF are units taken offline for outages caused by things out of the unit manager’s control.
As per Eskom’s last system outlook, most of its loadshedding stages are forecast to occur on base outages of 13 000MW, while the ‘worst case scenario’ is having 16 500MW offline.
Despite these challenges, the group says it made a 300MW recovery from Tutuka 3 in April this year, and another 675MW is expected to be recovered in May. Most recoveries are however only expected to be done much later this year.
In the meantime, Eskom says a plan is being finalised for winter, and the Government Communication and Information System (GCIS) has appealed to South Africans to aid Eskom and the government to manage the country’s energy demand.
The group is currently trying to manage loadshedding via demand-side management (DSM), through which it will try to exert more control over energy use by industry, business and residents. Eskom hopes to decrease demand by 1 500MW via DSM – focusing on geysers and light bulbs while also expanding its DSM contracts with industry and business.
According to the group, DSM programmes could create ‘a win-win situation – reducing pressure on the power system and enabling consumers to realise cost savings by being more energy conscious and reducing their consumption without affecting business productivity or quality of life.’
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