South African food prices have reportedly been declining by a small margin since December 2023, and a declining trend in food inflation is set to continue this year.
Also read: SA inflation rate drops to 0.2% but food prices keep rising
This is according to the latest food basket data from the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group (PMBEJD), which indicates a year-on-year increase in food prices for December. However, when compared with November, there is a month-on-month decline.
BusinessTech reports that the average cost of the Household Food Basket was recorded at R5 238.20 during December 2023, about R76.43 less than in November 2023. However, it was still R385.03 higher than December 2022.
While year-on-year food price inflation in South Africa still surpasses the headline inflation reported by Stats SA, there’s a noticeable downward trend. In November, the basket inflation stood at 9.9%, signifying a notable two-percentage-point decrease in year-on-year prices.
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The PMBEJD’s basket, comprising 44 essential food items typically bought by most households monthly, reflects a lower-income perspective but mirrors the spending habits of the majority of households.
BusinessTech notes that approximately 55% of South Africans live below the upper-bound poverty line of R1 558 per month. Of the 44 food items, the price of five items dropped year-on-year. One item remained the same, while the price of 39 items increased.
About 23 items still see double-digit price increases year-on-year. Of these, eight items spiked by more than 20%:
- Eggs: +55%
- Potatoes: +50%
- Oranges: +49%
- Butternut: +45%
- Apples: +29%
- Bananas: +25%
- Green pepper: +23%
- Rice: +21%
The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (FBAP) states that South Africa experienced a 24% reduction in potato volumes due to the effects of loadshedding on the ability to irrigate. This explains the increase in prices.
Moreover, egg prices also skyrocketed amid the Avian Influenza outbreak.
However, prices still decreased in December despite the year-on-year hikes for items such as potatoes, butternut and onions.
Potatoes decreased by 19% month-on-month, butternut by 17%, and tomatoes and onions dropped by 12% and 10% respectively. Egg prices also appear to be stabilising, though they remain higher than the same time last year.
On a positive note, these items decreased and are lower than in December 2022:
- Onions: -27%
- Cooking oil: -13%
- Maine meal: -7%
- Beef: -2%
- Beef liver: -1%
In Cape Town, the overall food basket decreased by R115.61 (-2.2%) month-on-month and increased by R355.45 (7.4%) year-on-year to R5 132.78.
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