South Africa is set to hold its general elections on 29 May to elect a new National Assembly and the provincial legislatures in each province.
Since the inaugural post-apartheid election in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has consistently maintained a majority in the National Assembly.
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A recent Ipsos poll suggests that South Africa may experience a significant political shift after the 2024 general elections.
The ANC is projected to possibly receive less than 40% of the vote, while the Democratic Alliance (DA), the current official opposition, is facing a significant challenge from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), making the upcoming elections highly competitive.
Conducted between 23 October and 1 December 2023, Ipsos gathered data through 3 600 face-to-face interviews across the country. Participants were asked to simulate voting on a computer, ensuring the confidentiality of their responses.
Ipsos stated that because the poll captured participants’ sentiments at a specific time, it does not serve as a completely accurate election prediction. However, the firm pointed out that its polling for the 2019 elections was relatively close to the actual outcome.
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According to the Electoral Commission of South Africa, more than one million individuals were registered on the voters’ roll after the voter registration weekend on 3-4 February. This increase brings the total number of eligible voters to 27.4 million.
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