Over the past three months, satellites detected more than twice the usual number of fire alerts in Cape Town compared to the previous six years.
Two-thirds of these alerts occurred in December, marking it as the third-highest month for fire warnings in the past 12 fire seasons, following March 2015 and January 2017.
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Cape Town’s usual fire season spans from November, reaching its peak in February or March the following year. However, this season started earlier than usual, and by the end of January, the 2023/24 fire season had already recorded the fourth-highest number of fire alerts since the 2012/13 season.
This is according to data analysed by The Outlier, which aimed to validate the perception of worsening fires in Cape Town.
The Outlier notes that fire alerts may not accurately represent the actual number of fires.
According to Dr Heath Beckett of Stellenbosch University’s School for Climate Studies, the NASA VIIRS sensor (which The Outlier used as a source for the fire alerts data) is ‘mounted on a satellite which in South Africa passes overhead approximately twice a day…so if a fire burns throughout the day, it will be counted twice, and if it burns for two days, the same fire could be counted up to four times.
‘On the other hand, a small fire could start and be extinguished in between the time the satellite passes over and would not be counted at all.’
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The satellite data displays locations on a map where a fire or hotspot has been detected. However, it’s important to note that the dots on The Outlier’s maps don’t indicate the size of the fire or the extent of the burnt area.
All the dots are the same size, and their sole purpose is to roughly show where the fires are located on the map.
Looking at the events in Cape Town in 2017, when comparing the alerts and burn images, a link emerges between reported fires and the actual burn patterns.
Although the alerts might overstate the number of fires, the consistent correlation in location highlights the need to consider both datasets for a more complete understanding of the situation.
By using fire alerts as an activity indicator, patterns in alerts from various years become apparent. In the combined animated image, January 2024 alerts are highlighted in red.
The majority of the 2023 alerts on the Cape Peninsula are situated further south, near Simon’s Town. In 2015, the largest number of fire alerts, represented by blue dots, were closer to Hout Bay. View the animation here.
As per The Outlier, fires can be both beneficial and destructive to fynbos in the Western Cape. While these fires are crucial for the regeneration and health of the indigenous vegetation, excessive and frequent fires can be harmful.
Many fynbos plants rely on fires to germinate their seeds. Fires open seed pods, allowing seeds to disperse and grow. They also clear dead vegetation, promoting biodiversity and preventing one species from dominating.
However, the timing, frequency, and intensity of fires are crucial. Too frequent fires can destroy seeds before they mature, resulting in a loss of plant diversity.
Professor Brian van Wilgen, an expert in fire ecology, suggests that fynbos typically need a fire every 12 years in the same spot. While fynbos is adapted to fires, having fires every five years, for example, is considered too frequent and can be damaging.
Alerts: Cape Town 2012 to 2024
Note: Number of fire alerts recorded. The actual number of fires is likely to be lower.
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