According to energy experts, data from Eskom indicates a significant improvement in power availability across South Africa. However, they also caution that the possibility of winter loadshedding still looms.
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Earlier this week, Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa announced that the country experienced at least 54 days without loadshedding, and he thanked the ‘hard work of officials’ at Eskom for the improvement.
‘What we are seeing now is an exceptionally improved energy situation…is as a result of [a] constellation of efforts on the part of Eskom. It’s [also] an all-of-government effort to ensure that we resolve the challenges that are facing the country…the resolution of an energy deficit,’ he said in a statement.
‘We are not yet out of the woods but we can see the trend line. We know that we are going to have momentary setbacks. It is the nature of this, but we must be fixed on…returning units on time. And where there are periods of failure, you mustn’t be despondent.’
He also dispelled reports that Eskom was burning diesel at a high rate to keep the lights on. ‘The [Open Cycle Gas Turbines] are part of the fleet. They are designed…that during [the] afternoon peak, when you have elevated demand, if you are struggling to meet that demand then you engage the OCGTs.
‘If you look at the period that they were on load on average was previously about 17% and then now, we are just shy of 6%. So it’s a considerable drop in the usage. From the 1st of April 2024 to the 16th of May, Eskom spent R1.24 billion in engaging the OCGTs. The same period last year…we burnt R5.2 billion worth of diesel. Essentially, we have seen a drop of 78%.’
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Professor Sampson Mamphweli, the head of energy at the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), agrees that Eskom has significantly improved its performance.
However, the risk of loadshedding during winter remains, BusinessTech reports.
Mamphweli told NewzroomAfrica that Eskom reduced breakdowns in its coal fleet by 7%. Given the lower-than-anticipated demand (currently between 24 000MW and 28 000MW) and about 6 000MW of additional capacity thanks to rooftop solar and other private generation during the day, South Africa’s grid seems to be far more stable and positive.
‘Demand has been lower than expected. The weather has been warmer than usual – but we think when we head towards June and July things might change,’ Mamphweli said.
‘The grid will be slightly constrained in winter, and we’re looking at least Stage 2 loadshedding if demand rises to over 34 000MW.’
However, he notes that if Eskom manages to return 3 500MW of capacity to the grid, there might not be any loadshedding for a few days.
Conversely, if unplanned outages increase, loadshedding will escalate.
In its winter outlook, Eskom noted that loadshedding should not exceed Stage 5 in the worst-case scenario. BusinessTech reports that loadshedding could end by end-2024 or early 2025 as more energy comes online in the private sector.
Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati agreed with this sentiment in an interview with ITWeb TV. According to Nyati, the maintenance work done by Eskom means that the currently available capacity is around 32 000MW, while demand stands at 28 000MW, providing a ‘huge surplus’.
He also noted the increase in EAF to between 65% and 70%, adding that although slightly delayed, this was in line with the utility’s set targets.
Mamphweli, citing the previous Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs), stated that loadshedding is not necessary if the EAF is above 70%.
Energy expert Chris Yelland says Eskom pulled off a ‘truly remarkable turnaround’ with energy availability. He underscored a decline in planned maintenance.
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