The new energy generation plan for South Africa has been labelled as a ‘shoddy piece of work’, lacking detail, and indicating that loadshedding is on the cards for the next seven years.
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This is according to independent energy analyst Clyde Mallinson, who weighed in on the draft of the Integrated Energy Plan (IRP) of 2023. The document was gazetted for public comment this week.
Mallinson says the latest document is an ‘extremely shoddy piece of work’ which lacks references to sources and costing used. ‘We can’t test the modelling because we are not provided with the input assumptions.’
The plan suggests a new generation capacity of 29.3GW, with 2.7GW currently under construction – falling short of the recommended amount by the Presidential Climate Commission, as noted by Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, senior economist at Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies. Additionally, the plan foresees a deficit in supply and demand until the decade’s end.
The draft, which excludes #greenhydrogen-related developments, looks to add only 29.3GW of generation capacity over the 2024-2030, with 2.7GW already under construction.
That’s much less than what is deemed necessary by @ClimateZA (50-60GW of #renewableenergy, with storage)— Gaylor Montmasson-Clair (@GaylorTIPS) January 5, 2024
Furthermore, more than 8GW of new gas projects – more than the 6.3GW of allocations made to gas and diesel in the previous IRP – are also on the agenda. However, Engineering News reports that the latest version excludes green hydrogen-related gas projects.
The 2023 plan also sees much fewer allocations for renewables such as solar PV and wind than in IRP2019. Only 5.9GW of solar PV is planned by 2030, compared to the 2019 document, which listed 8.3GW for the same timeframe.
Wind energy has also been drastically decreased, with only 7.9GW projected to come online by 2030, compared to 17.7GW planned in 2019.
‘It lacks detail. There are a lot of unanswered questions, and there is a lack of clarity when it comes to the assumptions,’ says Montmasson-Clair.
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Mallinson told Engineering News that the energy demand projections are significantly underestimated, neglecting the impact of electrifying the transport sector. The latter could substantially increase demand by 2050.
He also noted that it seems the modellers relied on current growth statistics and projected them into the future to estimate electricity demand.
Montmasson-Clair also noted how ‘strange’ it is that the majority of short-term scenarios modelled fail to attain energy security. This, he adds, should be the primary goal or at the very least a fundamental achievement before exploring the least-cost and low-carbon options for the energy mix.
‘Why are we bothering with scenarios that do not achieve energy security? It is very strange to me, and I do not have an answer.’
In addition, the IRP2023 revealed great amounts of unserved energy across three scenarios.
According to Engineering News, a substantial and positive change in energy security is projected from 2027, attributed to the implementation of dispatchable power sources such as gas and the improved performance of Eskom’s power stations.
However, the proposed energy mix for 2026 and 2027 does not incorporate solar photovoltaic (PV), and wind energy is omitted from the plan for 2028. Montmasson-Clair notes that this is a cause for concern as the country needs all the energy it can get.
Distributed power, including rooftop solar, is also planned at a low 900MW per year until 2030. ‘The market tells us we will get a lot more than that because we are already getting more than that.’
During the first half of 2023, South Africa imported approximately R12 billion worth of solar PV panels. According to energy analyst Chris Yelland, the ‘pace and scale’ of distributed generation over the next few years seem ‘absurdly unambitious’ and ‘wrong’ based on current trends in the energy sector.
Mallinson adds that the plan’s long-term agenda is also lacking for the years between 2031 and 2050.
The plan presents five scenarios examining the effects of clean coal, the implementation of renewable and clean energy technologies like nuclear power, and the postponed decommissioning of coal-fired power stations on energy security. However, it does not disclose the preferred option among these scenarios.
Instead, the IRP2023 calls for technical analysis and policy adjustments. ‘It is not fit for purpose. It looks like something from the last century, at a time when the energy supply industry is going through the biggest disruption in history,’ says Mallinson.
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Engineering News notes that the IRP2023 seems to promote delayed decommissioning of coal-fired power stations, boosting the performance of old coal fleets, and deploying gas-to-power plants instead of increasing private sector wind and solar PV and battery energy storage.
Yelland notes that this was done without a proper analysis of the implications of increasing the performance of an old coal-fired power plant, or the costs of gas-to-power compared to alternatives.
Matthew Parks, spokesperson for the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), says the labour federation will request engagements on the IRP2023 via the National Economic Development and Labour Council to ensure that the views of workers are incorporated in the final document.
‘It’s critical the final IRP provides an appropriate energy sources mix, including a reliable base load, and support for an urgent expansion of clean energy sources. We will not accept any worker or community to be left behind.’
The draft Integrated Energy Plan (IRP) of 2023 will be open to public comment until 23 February 2024.
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Picture: Zbynek Burival / Unsplash