South African motorists are heading into October with another painful fuel-price shock on the horizon, with current Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to petrol 95 potentially climbing above R30 a litre.
The latest projections come as the monthly fuel-price review has closed, showing significant under-recoveries across petrol and diesel. The final figures will only be confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Petroleum (DMPR) ahead of the changes taking effect on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.
Based on the latest CEF figures, petrol 93 is showing an under-recovery of R3.08 a litre, while petrol 95 is sitting at R3.29.
That puts the projected price of petrol 95 at around R30.21 a litre, although this is not yet the final pump price.
The final adjustment can still be affected by other components, including the slate levy, meaning motorists should treat the current figures as an indication rather than a confirmed price.
Diesel motorists are facing an even steeper increase.
The current projections point to a wholesale increase of R2.80 a litre for 0.05% sulphur diesel and R3.19 a litre for 0.005% sulphur diesel.
At the projected increase, 0.005% sulphur diesel could reach approximately R33.24 a litre at wholesale level.
Illuminating paraffin is also projected to increase by R3.57 a litre.
The projected October figures mark a sharp turnaround from some of the prices recorded earlier in 2026.
Petrol 95 was priced at R20.30 in March before climbing to R23.36 in April, R26.63 in May and R28.06 in June. It then eased during July and August before rising again to R26.92 in September.
If the latest projection materialises, October’s R30.21 would become the highest petrol 95 price in the period shown.
Diesel 0.005% has followed a similarly volatile path, reaching R31.88 in May before falling during the following months. September’s price stood at R30.05, with the October projection taking it above R33.
What motorists should know
The numbers currently circulating are not the final fuel prices. The DMPR is expected to announce the official adjustments before the new prices come into effect on 7 October.
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Also read:
SA fuel price: petrol and diesel could rise by more than R2 in October 2026
Picture: Misha Jordaan / Gallo Images
